2024 Cubs Q&A: Playoff odds, players to watch, biggest questions

The Chicago Cubs, who fell one game short of the postseason last fall, wasted little time initiating their offseason plan for 2024.

Not even one week after the World Series ended, the Cubs acted quickly to make their biggest splash — signing manager Craig Counsell away from the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers and awarding him the richest contract for a manager in MLB history.

That meant firing fourth-year manager David Ross, whose Cubs improved from 74 to 83 wins in 2023 yet faded down the stretch to finish nine games behind the Brewers.

Aside from the addition of Counsell, who signed a 5-year, $40 million deal, team president Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins also orchestrated some key on-the-field moves that should put the Cubs in contention for their first NL Central crown since 2020.

Here are answers to some of the biggest questions facing the 2024 Cubs. 

How many games are the Cubs projected to win and what is their season outlook?

According to oddsmakers, Counsell is expected to have a slightly positive impact on the Cubs’ fortunes. FanDuel Sportsbook projects the Cubs to win 83.5 games, making them virtually the same team they were a year ago. The only difference is that their playoff odds (+100) favor them to make the postseason in 2024.

At +200, they also have the second-best odds to win the NL Central behind the St. Louis Cardinals (+150). Plus, the Cubs have the fifth-best odds to win the National League pennant, which would be their first since their drought-busting World Series championship in 2016.

When is Opening Day, and who will start the first game?

The Cubs’ 2024 season begins on Thursday, March 28, against the World Series champion Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

All-Star left-hander Justin Steele, who was sixth in ERA (3.06) in 2023, will start for the Cubs against the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi, who won the decisive Game 5 of the World Series.

Notable offseason additions

Hiring Counsell and re-signing former NL MVP Cody Bellinger, who had a strong comeback season in 2023, were arguably the Cubs’ biggest offseason moves. But they were also able to add some new faces who could make an immediate impact.

Shota Imanaga: The Japanese left-hander was in high demand once he was posted, but the Cubs emerged as the winner, signing him to a four-year, $53 million contract. Imanaga, 30, slots nicely into the Cubs’ starting rotation, which lost Marcus Stroman to free agency but already includes Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. Known as “The Throwing Philosopher,” Imanaga pitched eight seasons for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Central League, which he led in strikeouts last season. He’s already set to start the Cubs’ home opener on April 1. 

Michael Busch: The Cubs acquired Busch in January along with right-hander Yency Almonte in a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the left-handed hitting infielder is expected to be the Cubs’ starting first baseman on Opening Day. Busch, whom MLB Pipeline ranks as the game’s 51^st-best prospect, made his major league debut last season, hitting .167 in 27 games. The Cubs are hoping Busch, who hits for power (27 in Triple-A in 2023), can take advantage of his opportunity and establish himself as an everyday player.

Hector Neris: The Cubs targeted the bullpen as an area of need, and they helped solidify it with Neris, who signed a one-year, $9 million deal. Neris, 34, has established himself as one of the game’s most durable setup men, and he’s coming off his best season (1.71 ERA in 71 games with the Houston Astros). The 10-year veteran, who has a career ERA of 3.24, also has playoff experience, with 15 appearances over the past two postseasons.

Top storyline from spring training

When will we see Pete Crow-Armstrong?

The Cubs have already optioned their No. 1 prospect to Triple-A Iowa to start the season, but he is expected to return at some point in 2024. 

Re-signing Bellinger almost ensured Crow-Armstrong’s demotion, given that the Cubs have plenty of outfield depth and the 21-year-old outfielder could benefit greatly from getting guaranteed at-bats every day.

Crow-Armstrong, considered MLB’s No. 16 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, is already a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder who’s also been a dynamic offensive player, although he went hitless during his initial 13-game MLB call-up last fall. 

Whenever the Cubs feel he is ready and there’s a need at the major league level, there’s no doubt Cubs fans will look forward to seeing “PCA” roaming the Wrigley Field outfield.

Biggest question going into 2024

Will the Cubs be any better under Counsell?

One can question how much of an impact a manager makes toward his team’s on-field success, but Counsell, 53, seemed like he was able to extract every ounce of talent from his rosters in Milwaukee, enough to win three NL Central crowns overall and two over the past three years.

Now that he has moved 90 miles south, the Cubs are banking on him having the same impact in Chicago. Last September, as the Cubs played themselves out of playoff contention, Counsell’s Brewers thrived down the stretch, winning 13 of their last 20 to run away with the division title.

Given the price the Cubs paid to get Counsell, anything short of the playoffs in 2024 would be viewed as a major disappointment.

Just how improved will the Cubs be?

In the dugout and on the field, the Cubs appear to be better and deeper than the 2023 version. At the very least, they look like legitimate contenders in what is expected to be a tight NL Central race with the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds.

Getting Bellinger back was key to the Cubs’ offense, which was sixth in runs scored in 2023. The additions of Imanaga, Neris and Almonte could help elevate the Cubs’ staff that was only 14^th in ERA last season. Plus, the infusion of young players like Busch, lefty pitcher Jordan Wicks, and PCA could provide a much-needed spark. 

While the Cubs’ roster might not be on the level of the Los Angeles Dodgers or the Atlanta Braves, the Cubs have the parts to take a step forward in 2024.